What is My Personal Risk of Lung Cancer?

The lung cancer risk of an individual can be accurately estimated using simple medical history information including age, smoking and occupational history.

David Burns, MD, emeritus professor of medicine at the University of California at San Diego, has developed a helpful risk assessment guide from an analysis of Cancer Prevention Study CPS II data published in Monograph No. 8 by Michael Thun, PhD,  et al on smoking and premature death. 

To view the entire paper go to: http://cancercontrol.cancer.gov/tcrb/monographs/8/m8_5.pdf

The graph shows the number of cases of lung cancer (per 100,000 people) in each box based upon age and number of cigarettes smoked.

To get an estimate of your personal risk, go to the row that describes the number of cigarettes you have smoked on average each day, then move to the right until you reach the column respresenting your age group.  For example, if you are a man and 55 years old who has smoked an average of two packs/day, then your estimated risk of lung cancer is 335 out of 100,000 or 0.335% risk per year during the next five years and will rise to 0.499% per year in the next five year period.  This identifies your risk of lung cancer during the next ten years as between 3-5%.

The data show is that the risk of lung cancer is low in people below the age of forty, with the exception of very heavy smokers. At the other end of the spectrum, the risk of lung cancer in heavy smokers over age 70 is 4000 out of 100,000 or  4% risk per year.

Because the majority of people with lung cancer die of the disease within five years, the comparable estimates for lung cancer deaths by age and amount of cigarettes smoked per day for men and women are shown in the figures below.